Use when the evidence strongly suggests a conclusion even if it's not directly stated. Given his expertise, it stands to reason he'll solve the problem quickly.
Pro Tip 2/3
Certainty vs. Possibility
It implies high certainty of an outcome or belief, not just a possibility or guess. Since all the tickets are sold out, it stands to reason that the concert will be packed.
Pro Tip 3/3
Avoid Overuse
Use sparingly to emphasize conclusions that are very logical; overuse can weaken its impact. It's cloudy today, but it stands to reason we'll need sunscreen for tomorrow's picnic.