
Surmise
Evidence Lacking
Use 'surmise' to convey you're making a conclusion without solid proof, rather than a random guess.
Seeing the empty driveway, I surmised they weren't home.
Implies Thought
'Surmise' suggests you've considered the evidence you do have before reaching your conclusion.
Judging by the loud noise, I surmise the machine is broken.
Formal Context
The verb 'surmise' is found in more formal or literary contexts than everyday conversation.
Investigators surmised that the painting was a forgery.